***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.9 65.0 30.6 30.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 13.2 16.5 23.1 64.6 29.7 30.2 17.9 24.1 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 18.9 21.7 25.8 65.9 30.9 30.7 22.9 33.2 43.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 19.6 22.0 27.7 63.4 25.4 29.1 28.8 39.6 49.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 20.8 20.4 28.3 66.2 28.7 30.2 24.1 37.2 45.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 16.2 15.8 29.3 72.5 32.1 33.8 16.4 30.5 38.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 12.8 16.3 22.9 64.9 30.9 30.4 16.5 24.5 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 31.2 28.0 30.5 70.5 32.1 33.5 28.5 54.4 67.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 15.2 18.6 29.8 68.6 29.8 31.1 20.0 24.7 34.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 19.7 22.6 31.8 71.0 31.4 33.2 22.7 30.0 46.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 16.0 15.3 26.5 66.6 28.7 30.9 16.2 28.6 41.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 16.1 16.2 25.9 67.7 31.3 31.5 17.9 27.9 44.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 18.2 16.9 27.5 71.0 30.5 32.9 18.8 28.9 40.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 33.2 29.2 32.0 69.4 31.4 31.9 29.3 49.0 54.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 14.1 13.3 27.5 64.3 31.3 31.7 15.3 23.3 37.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 15.8 12.9 25.8 67.1 28.8 31.0 16.7 28.1 43.1 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 13.4 12.3 22.4 65.4 31.4 30.9 14.8 23.8 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.8 20.0 35.6 72.7 36.1 34.7 18.9 31.3 45.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 17.5 18.5 24.0 65.3 30.1 30.7 20.3 32.3 36.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 19.4 23.8 41.2 74.0 37.6 36.1 19.9 32.3 45.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 17.9 17.2 27.7 66.8 29.8 30.5 18.1 28.8 42.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 15.1 13.5 24.3 67.4 28.3 31.3 15.4 23.9 31.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 15.9 16.9 26.1 66.6 32.7 31.4 17.0 27.0 36.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 28.2 26.0 31.7 69.8 32.8 32.8 26.2 35.4 47.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 21.3 21.4 28.2 65.0 28.0 30.3 24.1 34.3 40.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 14.3 13.5 27.0 68.2 31.9 31.7 14.7 23.8 35.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 15.3 16.3 27.1 65.8 30.0 30.5 17.5 28.3 32.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 12.2 13.1 27.2 64.6 28.7 30.6 13.7 22.4 36.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 35.9 39.1 38.0 73.2 36.3 35.0 35.9 52.4 67.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 13.3 17.4 23.7 64.6 30.0 30.1 19.8 24.0 33.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------