***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.6 69.7 49.7 42.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.8 6.1 67.4 52.0 41.2 1.3 4.5 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.1 6.9 69.9 51.6 42.3 1.6 5.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 10.7 7.3 65.6 54.1 42.5 5.3 9.5 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.2 10.0 7.4 67.8 51.3 41.9 5.5 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.7 8.9 7.6 74.7 50.6 43.3 3.7 8.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.6 6.0 68.7 51.6 41.4 1.3 4.3 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.7 11.9 8.2 75.4 48.4 43.3 8.6 12.2 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.4 8.0 72.0 50.4 42.4 2.2 7.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.6 8.5 8.7 75.2 48.6 43.1 5.0 8.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.5 6.9 68.3 48.3 41.1 3.7 8.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.3 4.3 6.7 70.1 48.4 41.6 1.6 4.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.8 9.3 7.0 70.9 49.7 41.4 3.8 9.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.1 8.6 71.2 54.5 42.2 3.0 5.8 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.0 7.6 70.7 58.2 44.7 0.9 5.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.8 6.6 66.8 48.9 40.7 3.9 6.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.7 4.5 5.9 68.5 54.6 41.6 0.9 3.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 7.4 9.9 77.9 52.0 43.9 4.5 7.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.8 6.3 68.0 52.2 41.6 1.1 5.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.5 11.1 80.2 54.2 45.4 3.7 7.0 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.1 6.9 7.3 69.5 52.4 42.5 2.6 6.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.6 6.5 69.2 53.3 41.9 0.5 4.0 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.7 5.0 6.9 69.0 53.5 41.8 0.9 3.2 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.3 8.7 73.2 53.4 42.7 4.4 8.8 15.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.7 7.4 66.6 49.6 42.4 2.3 9.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.6 6.9 71.1 51.6 42.5 4.3 9.3 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.1 7.1 69.4 49.3 42.5 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.4 7.2 67.2 55.3 43.0 1.4 7.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.3 15.6 10.5 79.1 52.7 44.5 7.1 14.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.4 6.3 68.8 50.6 41.4 1.2 3.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------