***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 9.3 107.6 62.5 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.7 8.1 106.9 63.8 52.0 1.8 3.8 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.7 9.7 9.6 111.9 62.6 54.7 3.7 5.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 8.3 10.1 10.8 112.6 63.2 55.0 2.9 6.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.3 9.1 11.1 120.0 66.9 57.8 2.2 5.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.4 8.6 11.7 123.4 65.5 58.7 2.1 4.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.8 8.1 107.8 64.7 52.0 1.3 3.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 10.6 12.4 12.0 125.1 68.7 60.3 4.4 8.4 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.6 8.6 11.4 122.4 67.8 58.5 2.7 4.3 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.6 10.7 12.1 124.7 69.3 60.1 3.1 6.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.7 8.0 10.5 122.9 66.5 59.5 1.6 3.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.6 10.5 123.5 68.0 59.4 2.2 4.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.4 11.3 128.9 67.7 60.6 2.9 5.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.2 16.1 11.4 113.2 64.6 56.0 8.4 12.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.5 8.9 10.3 107.9 61.3 52.3 0.5 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 4.3 5.6 10.6 125.5 67.2 59.8 1.4 2.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.1 8.8 7.6 104.1 66.9 51.4 1.3 4.1 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.6 9.2 13.5 126.4 71.7 60.8 5.6 6.6 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.1 8.5 107.9 61.2 52.7 2.8 5.1 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.2 12.0 16.3 132.1 70.5 61.9 4.1 5.9 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.3 9.6 10.6 115.9 67.2 56.1 3.6 5.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.9 9.5 8.1 105.5 66.9 51.9 2.8 6.3 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.0 9.3 110.4 57.3 53.7 4.0 6.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.9 17.2 11.8 118.1 66.6 57.8 6.3 10.7 17.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.7 7.8 10.7 111.3 61.1 55.3 3.3 4.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.0 8.1 10.8 118.7 66.5 58.1 0.9 3.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.0 10.0 109.3 61.9 54.6 2.7 4.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.5 10.6 113.3 63.5 54.6 0.4 2.9 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 17.2 16.7 14.6 129.1 71.0 61.4 9.1 12.4 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.4 8.5 108.7 63.5 53.1 2.2 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------