***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.1 66.9 50.0 38.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.8 6.8 67.8 51.5 40.3 0.3 2.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.1 2.4 7.3 67.0 49.8 39.0 0.4 2.5 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.2 4.6 7.7 64.4 46.5 37.7 2.5 4.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.7 7.8 65.2 46.0 37.9 1.3 3.8 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.0 2.2 8.5 74.5 49.0 39.9 0.6 2.5 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.4 6.7 66.4 48.8 39.3 0.2 1.7 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 7.5 8.4 68.8 46.5 38.9 3.3 7.8 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 1.3 1.5 8.3 66.8 42.7 36.9 0.8 3.3 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.1 8.8 69.1 43.9 38.5 2.0 3.5 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 1.8 3.3 7.2 64.8 44.7 37.9 1.0 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 1.8 3.4 7.0 66.8 47.1 38.3 0.8 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.9 7.6 72.0 47.1 41.0 1.0 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.0 9.2 73.5 50.4 42.0 2.7 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.6 2.8 7.6 63.9 47.5 37.0 0.6 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.2 2.4 7.1 66.5 45.1 38.3 1.2 2.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.0 2.3 6.7 70.9 51.0 41.4 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.6 3.1 9.7 70.1 42.8 39.1 2.4 3.5 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.4 7.0 69.4 53.3 41.4 0.6 3.0 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.3 11.1 71.3 45.8 39.9 3.4 5.8 8.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.4 7.8 68.2 47.8 38.9 0.7 4.6 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.3 7.3 76.0 54.2 42.3 0.0 2.2 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.9 2.4 7.5 70.9 51.7 42.2 0.2 2.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.3 3.8 8.8 70.5 45.5 39.9 1.3 4.7 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 0.6 0.8 8.0 66.2 45.2 38.0 0.3 1.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.2 2.7 7.8 73.8 51.0 41.5 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 0.8 1.2 7.7 67.6 47.0 38.5 0.1 2.1 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 1.7 3.5 7.6 64.3 44.8 37.4 1.4 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.7 7.1 10.2 69.9 44.3 39.4 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.6 1.3 6.9 66.3 51.5 39.5 0.3 1.2 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------