***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.9 19.9 18.0 16.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 0.7 0.3 2.1 23.3 20.8 18.7 1.2 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 1.5 0.6 2.0 20.6 22.2 18.0 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.9 17.2 12.0 11.6 2.2 5.4 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 1.7 0.9 2.0 18.9 14.8 14.5 3.9 6.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.5 1.5 15.8 17.4 14.6 1.8 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 1.0 0.3 2.2 23.9 22.5 18.5 1.3 4.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 1.2 0.9 2.0 19.1 18.8 14.2 4.4 9.0 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 0.9 0.4 2.1 20.1 16.0 14.2 2.1 3.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 1.0 0.3 2.3 21.0 19.4 15.0 2.4 5.3 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 1.1 0.5 1.8 18.5 17.9 15.4 2.2 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.7 17.6 18.1 13.5 1.7 3.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 1.1 0.6 1.7 17.2 16.8 14.7 2.6 4.9 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 2.4 1.6 2.9 25.0 27.2 21.4 2.6 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 0.4 0.1 2.1 19.5 23.3 20.2 0.7 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 0.6 0.4 1.6 16.5 16.9 14.2 1.0 3.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 1.2 0.7 2.2 24.7 24.6 21.3 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 1.0 0.4 2.5 21.3 20.1 15.2 2.3 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 0.8 0.3 2.2 23.4 21.6 19.4 1.7 3.6 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 0.8 0.7 2.6 19.1 21.0 14.8 2.0 5.3 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 1.3 1.0 1.9 18.9 18.4 15.8 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 0.9 0.7 2.5 26.1 22.9 21.2 1.5 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 1.1 1.2 2.4 23.8 24.6 21.0 2.2 4.2 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 2.5 1.9 2.5 22.5 22.5 19.0 3.0 6.7 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 1.3 0.9 2.1 20.0 16.7 16.1 1.8 5.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 0.6 0.1 1.5 14.6 15.2 13.7 1.8 4.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 0.6 0.1 2.2 21.3 17.9 16.4 1.3 4.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 94 6 0 100 0.1 0.0 1.9 18.3 18.2 16.4 0.3 2.2 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 2.0 1.7 2.6 20.8 19.6 14.6 3.1 6.1 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 0.8 0.5 2.1 22.2 19.2 17.2 1.9 3.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------