***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 0.0 6.5 2.8 79.2 77.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 4.9 5.6 6.5 2.9 80.7 78.8 1.9 3.2 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 6.2 6.9 6.7 2.7 78.1 76.7 2.8 4.0 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 1.6 2.4 4.3 2.7 78.5 76.4 -1.6 -0.4 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 5.9 6.4 5.0 2.6 76.2 75.4 3.1 4.0 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 5.3 6.0 4.3 2.5 78.6 76.7 2.8 3.6 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 4.9 5.8 6.3 2.9 81.9 79.1 1.7 2.8 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 0.7 1.3 4.7 2.4 77.7 75.7 -2.1 -0.8 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 7.0 7.0 6.0 2.6 74.8 75.3 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 5.8 6.5 5.4 2.5 76.9 75.9 3.3 3.8 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 5.9 6.5 5.0 2.5 75.0 75.2 3.5 3.9 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 5.8 6.2 4.8 2.3 74.2 74.5 3.6 4.4 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.8 4.6 2.3 74.4 75.0 3.4 3.9 5.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 6.8 7.4 6.5 2.6 77.6 76.0 3.4 4.7 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 5.3 5.7 4.6 2.8 77.7 76.7 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.1 4.6 2.4 74.5 74.9 3.9 4.4 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 4.5 5.5 6.3 2.9 83.0 78.9 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 3.8 4.4 5.3 2.4 79.0 75.5 2.0 2.7 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 5.4 6.1 6.7 2.9 79.9 78.0 2.4 3.5 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 2.6 3.5 3.8 2.3 82.5 77.1 0.4 1.5 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 6.5 6.8 6.4 2.7 75.5 76.0 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 5.7 6.4 6.5 2.8 81.2 78.1 2.6 3.5 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 5.2 5.9 6.8 2.8 79.6 76.9 2.2 3.3 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 7.0 7.7 6.3 2.5 77.1 75.6 3.9 4.5 5.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 5.1 5.7 5.3 2.8 80.8 78.6 2.3 3.3 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 5.1 5.4 4.2 2.1 75.4 74.5 3.5 4.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 5.6 6.9 6.0 2.7 80.8 78.3 2.4 3.6 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 6.0 6.5 4.5 2.7 77.1 75.7 3.4 4.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 3.3 4.4 4.7 2.4 80.2 76.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 5.0 5.6 6.6 2.9 79.3 78.5 1.8 3.1 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------