***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 5.8 1.8 65.1 63.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 5.7 6.0 5.8 2.0 67.0 65.2 1.0 2.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.5 6.0 1.8 65.1 63.7 1.9 3.2 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -1.0 0.0 3.6 1.6 62.8 61.9 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.6 4.2 1.6 63.5 61.7 2.1 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.7 3.4 1.4 62.6 60.5 1.7 3.2 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 2.6 6.2 5.7 2.0 67.5 64.9 0.8 1.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.4 -0.5 3.8 1.4 63.5 60.9 -3.4 -1.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.8 5.0 1.6 64.0 61.6 2.6 4.5 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.9 6.4 4.4 1.5 63.9 61.3 2.6 3.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.8 4.1 1.5 64.0 61.3 2.3 4.3 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.9 4.1 1.4 63.6 61.0 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.3 3.8 1.4 62.7 61.3 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.6 7.1 5.7 1.8 63.5 62.8 2.5 4.4 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.8 3.8 1.6 62.4 61.9 2.6 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.7 3.8 1.4 63.3 61.0 2.6 4.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.5 5.8 5.7 2.0 67.5 65.2 1.3 2.3 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.7 4.8 4.4 1.6 63.2 61.7 2.4 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 6.4 6.4 6.0 2.0 66.6 64.9 0.9 3.2 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 1.8 1.9 2.8 1.5 61.5 61.7 0.4 1.4 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.0 6.4 5.5 1.7 63.3 62.3 2.4 4.1 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 6.8 6.0 5.9 1.9 67.3 65.0 1.5 3.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 6.0 6.1 6.1 1.9 65.7 64.3 1.2 3.3 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.3 6.9 5.5 1.7 63.6 62.3 2.7 4.4 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 5.5 4.8 4.3 1.7 64.2 63.3 1.3 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.2 5.8 3.5 1.3 62.2 60.8 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 5.7 6.6 5.1 1.8 65.5 63.8 1.0 2.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.8 3.8 1.6 63.2 61.2 3.0 4.6 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.2 2.8 3.8 1.6 62.6 62.0 -0.9 1.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 5.6 6.1 5.9 1.9 66.6 64.8 0.8 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------