***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 6.2 2.4 71.6 71.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 4.8 5.0 6.2 2.7 73.9 72.5 1.7 2.4 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 5.8 6.0 6.4 2.4 71.2 70.2 2.4 3.2 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 2.4 2.8 4.2 2.4 74.1 71.3 -3.1 0.7 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 5.7 6.2 4.8 2.3 72.0 69.9 2.6 3.2 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 5.5 6.3 4.1 2.3 73.8 69.9 2.6 3.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.5 6.0 2.6 73.4 72.7 1.6 2.4 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 1.6 1.8 4.2 1.9 69.0 67.6 -2.6 -0.4 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.8 5.6 2.2 70.1 68.7 3.0 3.6 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 5.8 5.6 4.9 2.0 68.2 67.5 2.3 2.8 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 6.1 6.1 4.6 2.2 70.0 69.4 2.5 3.3 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 6.8 7.1 4.5 2.1 70.1 68.6 2.7 4.4 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 5.3 6.5 4.3 2.2 73.3 69.7 2.3 3.2 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 6.6 6.9 5.9 2.0 69.6 67.0 2.3 3.1 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.8 4.3 2.5 72.1 71.5 1.5 4.6 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.9 4.4 2.3 73.2 69.9 3.0 4.1 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 4.9 5.3 6.0 2.7 73.9 72.9 1.2 2.6 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 3.5 3.7 4.8 1.8 67.4 66.2 1.0 1.5 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 5.1 5.0 6.3 2.6 73.8 71.7 1.7 2.4 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 3.4 3.7 3.3 1.9 67.8 68.2 -0.6 0.5 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 6.0 6.2 6.0 2.3 71.4 69.9 2.7 3.3 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.2 5.5 6.1 2.6 73.1 71.8 1.4 2.4 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 5.1 5.0 6.4 2.4 72.9 70.2 1.6 2.4 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 7.1 7.2 5.8 2.0 69.6 67.0 2.4 4.1 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 4.9 4.8 4.9 2.3 73.2 71.2 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 5.5 6.3 4.0 2.1 72.1 69.2 2.3 3.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 6.0 5.3 5.6 2.3 72.8 71.3 2.3 3.3 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.3 4.4 2.5 73.2 71.0 2.2 4.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 3.5 4.0 4.2 1.8 67.4 66.7 0.1 1.2 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 4.5 4.7 6.2 2.6 73.2 71.9 1.9 2.2 3.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------