***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 9999.0 0.0 8.2 4.5 88.8 82.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 7.8 10.2 8.2 4.7 85.1 82.1 0.9 2.7 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 8.6 11.4 8.6 4.6 84.8 81.1 1.6 4.0 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 4.7 6.1 5.6 4.4 81.8 80.6 -2.3 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 7.9 10.8 6.9 4.4 83.7 80.9 1.1 2.9 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 8.2 10.4 6.3 4.3 85.2 84.3 1.2 2.8 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 6.6 10.1 7.9 4.7 86.3 82.6 0.7 2.0 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 2.3 4.1 7.2 4.7 91.1 86.7 -2.2 0.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 9.7 13.3 8.1 4.6 85.3 81.7 1.8 4.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 8.5 11.6 8.0 4.9 89.6 85.1 0.8 2.7 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 8.0 12.1 7.1 4.3 82.7 80.2 1.5 3.1 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 9.5 12.3 6.8 4.1 83.8 81.4 1.6 3.6 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 7.9 10.7 6.8 3.9 82.0 80.4 1.4 4.3 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 9.7 13.2 9.2 4.9 86.5 82.2 1.7 4.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 8.1 9.3 6.4 4.5 82.1 80.4 0.8 2.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 9.0 11.5 6.5 4.0 81.9 79.2 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 7.1 9.6 8.0 4.8 84.8 82.9 0.4 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 5.1 8.0 8.0 4.9 91.2 86.8 0.6 1.8 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 8.1 10.6 8.4 4.7 84.2 81.6 0.6 2.9 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 4.4 9.1 6.6 4.8 95.3 91.8 -1.7 2.2 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 8.8 12.7 8.4 4.6 86.1 81.2 1.8 3.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 8.3 10.1 8.1 4.6 84.0 81.9 0.6 2.1 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 7.0 8.5 8.5 4.6 83.2 80.8 0.9 2.1 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 9.9 13.7 8.8 4.8 87.5 83.0 1.9 5.4 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 7.6 10.4 7.5 4.8 88.2 84.5 0.9 2.7 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 6.8 9.0 5.9 3.6 83.6 83.4 1.5 3.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 8.8 11.6 8.0 4.6 88.2 83.4 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 9.3 11.0 6.1 4.4 80.8 79.4 0.9 2.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 6.8 9.0 7.4 4.8 92.4 89.3 -0.9 2.8 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 7.4 10.5 8.3 4.7 85.9 82.0 0.8 2.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------