***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.1 1.3 62.2 61.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 1.4 64.9 62.0 -6.4 -2.3 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 0.4 0.3 -1.5 1.2 61.8 61.7 -3.3 -1.2 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 -5.1 -6.1 -3.9 1.8 57.7 64.2 -9.0 -6.4 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 -1.1 -2.1 -3.6 1.5 56.2 62.1 -5.3 -2.7 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 -2.7 -4.4 -5.2 1.2 52.7 60.4 -7.3 -4.8 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -1.8 -1.1 -1.1 1.5 65.0 61.3 -5.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -8.1 -8.8 -4.6 1.1 49.1 58.0 -10.1 -8.7 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.6 -2.8 1.2 55.0 60.1 -4.5 -1.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -2.7 -4.1 1.1 50.7 57.9 -4.9 -2.8 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -2.4 -3.8 1.4 54.7 61.5 -5.2 -3.2 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -3.3 -3.8 -4.1 1.3 51.9 60.1 -6.3 -3.9 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 -1.6 -2.9 -4.5 1.2 53.7 60.7 -5.8 -3.5 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -1.2 -2.7 1.3 54.2 60.7 -4.2 -1.5 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 -0.8 -1.4 -3.4 1.9 58.1 63.7 -4.2 -2.4 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 -0.6 -1.9 -4.3 1.4 54.8 61.9 -5.3 -2.8 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -1.3 -0.9 1.5 64.8 61.6 -5.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -3.4 -3.9 -4.7 0.9 48.2 55.8 -6.4 -3.8 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.3 1.3 63.0 62.3 -5.7 -2.4 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -7.6 -8.2 -5.8 0.9 50.1 55.8 -10.9 -8.2 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -1.3 -2.0 1.2 59.7 61.0 -4.7 -2.3 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -1.2 -0.9 1.5 64.4 62.6 -5.8 -2.6 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 -1.4 -1.5 -1.7 1.2 59.0 62.5 -5.2 -2.2 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -2.3 -3.1 1.1 52.3 59.0 -5.0 -2.4 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 -0.9 -1.9 -2.8 1.6 60.4 63.8 -4.8 -2.2 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 -2.3 -3.5 -4.2 1.1 51.1 59.9 -5.2 -3.7 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 -1.0 -1.6 -1.9 1.4 63.0 62.0 -5.7 -3.2 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -1.8 -2.7 -3.8 1.8 56.8 63.2 -6.3 -4.1 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -5.0 -5.7 -5.1 0.9 46.9 55.3 -8.1 -5.5 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 -0.9 -0.8 -1.2 1.3 64.6 61.9 -5.7 -1.9 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------