***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.4 2.1 70.4 65.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 -1.1 -1.3 -0.6 2.2 70.9 66.0 -4.7 -2.6 -1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 0.7 0.1 -0.7 2.2 70.6 66.4 -2.7 -0.9 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 -3.7 -4.0 -3.1 2.9 71.9 70.2 -8.8 -5.5 -4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 -1.6 -1.3 -2.6 2.7 69.2 68.2 -3.5 -2.3 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 -2.5 -2.9 -4.3 2.3 59.8 65.5 -4.1 -3.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 -0.9 -0.4 -0.5 2.2 71.6 65.7 -4.2 -2.6 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -5.5 -5.7 -3.8 2.4 59.8 65.4 -8.8 -6.0 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 -1.4 -0.6 -1.8 2.5 67.2 65.9 -3.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 -2.1 -1.4 -3.0 2.5 62.5 65.6 -3.8 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 -1.3 -1.6 -2.9 2.7 66.3 67.9 -3.6 -2.2 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 -1.3 -2.2 -3.3 2.5 61.5 66.7 -3.7 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -2.2 -3.7 2.3 58.9 65.6 -3.6 -2.5 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 -0.8 -0.5 -1.9 2.2 69.2 65.8 -3.4 -1.6 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 -1.6 -0.9 -2.6 2.8 70.3 70.5 -4.2 -3.6 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 -0.8 -1.1 -3.5 2.6 64.8 67.7 -3.0 -1.9 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -2.5 -1.5 -0.6 2.1 69.5 64.4 -4.7 -3.0 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -3.3 -3.5 -3.6 2.3 59.7 64.8 -4.7 -3.7 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 -1.0 -0.6 -0.8 2.1 71.8 66.3 -4.9 -2.2 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -6.0 -5.4 -5.0 2.0 54.1 62.5 -8.9 -6.5 -5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 2.4 69.3 66.0 -3.9 -2.0 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -1.5 -0.7 2.1 68.9 64.3 -5.1 -2.8 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 -1.4 -0.9 -1.1 2.1 72.7 66.7 -4.3 -2.8 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 -1.6 -1.1 -2.1 2.3 66.1 66.2 -3.7 -2.9 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 -1.3 -1.4 -2.1 2.5 70.5 68.4 -3.3 -2.0 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.0 -3.6 2.0 56.5 63.7 -3.7 -2.4 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.2 2.3 70.0 66.2 -3.5 -1.7 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 -2.0 -1.9 -3.0 2.8 71.0 70.0 -5.1 -3.6 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -4.2 -2.9 -4.1 2.2 58.0 64.0 -6.3 -4.7 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 2.2 71.0 66.3 -4.4 -2.2 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------