***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 0.0 1.5 3.5 79.5 78.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 0.7 1.1 2.1 4.4 84.5 85.0 -4.9 -2.7 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 3.0 3.3 1.5 3.7 80.1 81.4 -3.0 -1.2 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 -0.6 0.7 -0.6 4.5 89.8 88.2 -8.3 -6.4 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 -0.4 0.4 -0.3 4.0 83.2 82.0 -5.6 -2.6 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.1 0.3 -1.8 4.3 90.8 89.4 -6.5 -3.8 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 1.0 1.5 2.1 4.3 83.8 84.0 -4.4 -2.8 -0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 -3.5 -3.3 -1.1 4.0 81.7 81.9 -9.2 -7.5 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 1.3 1.9 -0.1 3.5 78.9 77.5 -5.3 -1.6 -0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 3.9 80.4 79.8 -4.9 -2.5 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 0.0 0.3 -0.7 3.8 80.4 80.1 -4.9 -3.1 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 3.5 77.1 78.1 -6.7 -3.6 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 -0.8 -0.6 -1.4 3.5 75.5 75.8 -5.8 -3.5 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 1.3 2.1 1.0 4.3 86.3 85.4 -3.9 -1.8 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 0.5 0.9 -0.1 4.1 89.7 86.5 -4.8 -3.0 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 0.4 1.0 -1.2 3.9 82.0 82.3 -4.1 -2.4 -0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 0.4 1.9 2.4 4.7 90.1 86.9 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 4.1 78.7 80.5 -7.5 -4.9 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 1.0 1.7 1.9 4.2 85.4 85.3 -4.2 -2.5 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -3.7 -3.2 -1.8 4.6 83.2 83.6 -11.8 -7.9 -5.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 0.7 1.2 0.9 3.6 78.3 77.6 -5.9 -2.3 -0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 0.2 1.8 2.6 4.7 92.0 88.5 -5.5 -2.7 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 0.7 1.2 1.4 3.9 85.9 85.6 -4.4 -2.1 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 0.6 0.8 0.2 3.9 80.0 81.9 -4.7 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 0.0 1.4 0.5 3.9 85.4 83.9 -4.3 -2.3 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 -1.0 -0.7 -1.1 3.3 79.2 78.8 -5.8 -3.1 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 1.3 2.5 0.9 3.5 81.2 79.3 -5.3 -2.2 0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 -0.6 0.4 -0.4 4.4 87.7 86.0 -6.4 -4.0 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -0.7 -0.6 -1.5 4.4 80.3 82.2 -8.2 -5.2 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 1.2 1.5 2.0 4.1 82.5 83.3 -4.4 -2.6 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------