***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 33.8 36.6 47.4 120.5 70.4 62.0 18.0 28.1 35.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 32.4 34.3 46.5 125.9 73.5 64.3 18.3 26.1 32.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 47.4 48.7 49.1 124.1 72.3 63.5 23.5 37.8 47.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 43.1 48.8 49.7 117.4 64.1 59.8 30.2 39.5 51.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 48.9 49.5 53.1 125.8 70.7 64.0 23.4 41.1 47.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 34.7 38.9 49.7 123.6 68.3 62.6 16.9 32.5 38.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 33.3 33.5 46.0 124.5 72.2 63.9 16.6 26.3 32.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 68.5 77.9 60.1 136.1 77.1 67.2 30.1 55.0 68.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 36.7 42.6 57.2 130.6 76.8 66.9 19.9 27.2 36.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 45.5 54.8 61.5 135.4 77.8 68.5 23.5 30.8 45.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 33.9 49.3 51.9 130.8 71.4 65.6 16.6 29.4 45.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 31.2 51.9 51.4 132.7 74.2 65.5 18.8 26.2 44.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 46.3 53.2 51.2 129.7 71.8 65.7 20.8 27.9 43.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 59.3 66.4 62.1 134.6 78.3 69.3 33.2 48.8 56.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 31.6 24.9 42.2 100.8 51.9 51.6 17.6 23.6 43.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 32.5 46.1 48.8 127.3 69.7 64.3 15.0 27.9 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 35.0 37.7 45.9 126.6 74.5 64.4 16.6 23.4 31.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 43.8 53.1 67.8 136.2 79.0 69.7 18.7 33.8 41.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 37.5 39.4 47.5 127.2 73.7 64.8 20.3 33.3 37.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 35.2 52.4 76.9 131.5 75.4 65.9 22.8 31.2 47.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 43.4 48.1 52.6 126.2 72.6 64.6 19.6 32.9 44.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 38.0 36.2 48.5 128.3 73.0 64.9 16.3 27.8 33.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 38.1 43.8 50.5 129.7 74.3 66.1 18.7 26.5 38.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 47.8 55.7 60.7 133.5 78.1 68.7 29.1 35.0 45.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 37.5 45.1 54.0 121.5 69.5 62.6 27.3 34.9 41.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 26.3 39.3 49.4 125.2 70.0 62.6 14.5 22.5 35.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 34.9 36.8 52.3 123.1 71.6 63.5 18.1 29.3 35.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 29.2 35.6 45.1 111.5 58.5 56.4 15.3 23.1 40.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 71.6 86.0 72.1 134.5 78.2 68.7 38.9 53.6 62.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 31.5 39.9 46.5 123.8 72.7 63.6 19.8 28.9 37.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------