***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 12.9 11.5 124.0 66.3 58.7 1.2 6.2 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 8.7 9.5 11.8 140.4 71.5 61.4 1.1 6.1 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.3 14.6 11.8 125.0 69.2 58.5 2.7 6.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.7 13.6 11.1 114.5 67.0 57.3 4.9 9.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.9 13.9 11.8 118.0 67.9 57.7 5.6 10.1 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.6 10.7 109.7 65.7 55.9 3.6 8.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.7 11.6 139.6 71.4 60.7 1.6 5.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.5 18.5 12.8 111.9 64.9 54.6 9.4 12.3 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.2 11.0 12.7 119.1 67.8 57.7 2.2 7.2 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.6 13.2 115.5 66.4 56.1 5.7 9.5 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.4 11.1 115.2 67.0 56.7 4.3 7.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.3 9.4 10.9 110.8 65.3 55.0 2.4 5.2 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.4 16.4 10.9 109.5 65.2 55.6 4.1 8.3 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.7 17.4 15.3 133.5 72.4 59.3 3.6 6.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.3 9.7 101.9 61.7 54.1 0.9 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.2 11.8 10.2 111.9 65.7 56.0 4.1 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 8.1 8.5 11.6 141.6 72.4 61.0 1.2 5.1 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.6 14.9 116.0 67.5 55.6 5.3 6.8 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 9.2 10.5 12.2 140.1 72.8 61.3 1.3 6.8 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 12.3 17.3 110.7 64.2 53.5 3.8 6.4 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.3 11.4 12.2 121.3 66.4 57.8 3.4 6.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 9.4 10.5 12.6 145.8 75.6 61.8 1.0 5.9 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.8 12.3 12.9 140.0 72.8 61.1 1.2 4.4 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.9 14.8 14.0 123.2 69.1 57.4 4.9 8.6 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.9 16.2 12.9 124.6 65.0 59.0 4.0 8.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 9.6 11.2 11.0 105.1 62.2 54.1 4.2 8.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.4 12.6 126.6 66.2 59.2 2.7 8.4 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.8 10.3 10.1 109.0 65.0 55.8 1.4 4.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 19.0 16.3 116.0 67.0 55.2 7.7 13.9 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.9 9.5 11.7 134.9 70.4 60.5 1.3 4.3 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------