***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.9 10.2 94.9 59.7 49.1 1.7 4.7 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.1 9.1 10.4 107.6 69.3 52.0 1.3 3.8 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.3 8.9 10.4 97.1 57.0 50.6 3.8 6.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.0 11.2 101.1 60.4 51.9 4.0 8.8 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.3 11.7 104.6 58.3 52.7 2.4 5.9 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.0 8.3 12.5 118.8 64.4 54.5 2.2 5.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.8 10.4 106.8 66.9 51.6 1.6 4.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.0 13.9 123.9 62.8 56.3 5.4 7.0 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.2 12.2 103.5 56.9 52.3 2.7 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.2 13.6 114.0 60.5 55.3 3.9 7.3 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.6 11.7 113.6 60.3 54.6 2.2 4.7 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.2 10.8 12.1 124.2 64.2 55.7 1.7 3.8 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.8 12.8 124.5 62.2 55.8 2.4 6.1 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.4 13.1 13.0 102.4 59.3 53.1 7.6 9.8 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.5 10.3 98.3 60.3 51.8 0.5 9.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.3 6.3 11.6 117.3 62.9 54.4 2.1 3.5 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.4 6.7 10.5 115.0 71.1 54.4 0.8 3.3 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.5 15.0 112.1 61.5 55.2 4.3 6.9 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.6 10.1 10.4 106.5 66.9 52.2 2.8 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.4 18.1 117.7 63.2 54.9 3.2 5.8 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.2 11.1 97.7 56.3 50.8 3.3 5.1 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.5 9.4 10.9 114.9 68.6 54.7 1.3 3.7 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.5 10.6 103.2 62.9 52.6 3.8 6.1 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.6 12.8 103.6 57.9 53.4 7.1 10.5 14.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.8 12.0 98.0 58.8 50.2 3.4 4.6 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.5 7.8 12.3 122.5 65.8 54.4 1.0 3.0 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.3 11.6 98.9 59.7 49.9 2.0 3.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.1 10.6 103.3 61.3 52.5 0.4 4.9 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 14.0 16.1 111.4 60.5 54.6 9.2 12.9 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.5 10.2 102.2 65.9 50.9 1.8 3.8 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------