***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 2.2 3.1 10.5 103.2 60.1 56.4 0.1 1.2 3.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.3 4.0 10.7 110.1 61.9 55.8 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 3.3 5.3 11.2 110.2 62.3 57.3 0.7 2.2 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.6 11.8 105.8 61.1 54.9 2.4 4.4 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.5 12.7 117.4 63.4 58.0 1.6 4.1 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.0 12.0 106.1 57.0 53.5 0.5 2.5 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 2.6 2.7 10.6 110.7 60.1 55.8 0.2 1.1 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 9.7 11.7 13.6 117.5 62.6 57.3 2.3 7.9 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.2 13.5 120.8 63.1 59.6 1.1 4.3 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 6.1 8.4 14.3 122.5 65.0 59.3 2.5 4.8 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.0 7.1 12.3 118.7 62.0 57.8 1.3 4.9 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.7 5.5 11.7 113.9 61.3 56.6 0.7 3.5 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.3 11.7 112.0 58.2 55.4 1.0 4.8 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 7.0 9.6 14.8 126.7 64.4 61.7 3.6 5.6 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.6 3.0 10.0 86.5 55.4 49.3 0.4 1.4 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.8 5.4 11.5 112.7 59.0 55.7 1.0 2.2 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 2.1 3.9 10.8 113.2 62.9 56.9 0.3 1.3 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.9 9.3 15.6 123.2 64.5 60.1 2.6 4.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 3.3 4.1 11.0 112.9 63.3 57.0 0.3 1.7 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 5.8 6.2 16.7 112.8 60.3 56.8 3.1 5.1 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 4.1 6.9 12.1 113.7 63.0 58.3 1.3 3.1 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 2.3 4.7 11.6 117.2 68.0 58.6 0.0 1.2 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 3.3 5.3 11.9 119.6 66.1 59.3 0.2 2.0 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 6.1 8.6 14.2 124.9 64.5 61.0 1.8 4.7 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 2.8 7.6 12.4 107.6 63.0 56.1 0.5 1.5 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 2.5 3.3 11.3 108.3 56.5 54.0 0.8 1.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 3.4 4.5 11.8 107.0 62.8 56.2 0.3 2.2 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.5 10.8 98.6 58.6 52.1 0.9 3.3 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 10.3 13.4 16.3 119.9 63.3 59.2 4.7 8.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 2.7 1.7 10.5 107.1 59.9 55.5 0.2 0.9 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------