***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 6.1 8.3 15.1 166.9 82.8 69.4 1.6 3.9 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 9.2 11.2 13.6 148.5 78.0 66.2 2.2 4.7 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 11.6 13.5 15.7 169.4 84.8 70.1 3.8 7.2 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 12.1 12.1 15.7 149.9 75.5 66.5 2.3 8.5 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.5 17.6 16.8 166.2 76.9 69.7 3.9 6.5 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 9.1 12.1 14.5 168.3 79.1 72.5 1.3 4.7 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 9.5 12.4 13.4 144.1 78.2 66.0 1.5 4.0 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 17.3 21.7 19.8 200.0 84.0 77.8 3.9 9.7 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 10.1 14.9 18.8 185.1 85.0 74.5 1.6 6.2 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 10.1 21.1 20.4 197.4 85.1 77.6 1.8 5.4 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 10.0 12.0 16.9 179.2 77.7 72.9 0.9 4.9 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 9.5 13.9 16.7 188.7 82.1 75.2 1.4 3.5 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 12.0 17.4 15.9 178.7 80.4 75.0 1.5 5.1 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 14.2 20.8 19.0 185.2 84.1 75.0 3.4 8.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.8 12.4 12.3 118.1 69.3 60.6 0.9 3.6 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 9.3 11.4 15.4 170.5 76.7 71.5 0.9 3.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 10.3 12.0 13.0 138.4 74.3 65.4 2.2 4.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 8.3 16.4 22.3 204.7 86.8 79.3 2.3 5.4 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 10.2 13.0 14.0 152.4 79.4 66.5 2.7 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 13.3 17.3 24.8 196.2 84.5 77.8 2.0 6.6 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 9.5 17.9 17.2 178.8 84.4 72.0 3.3 6.4 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 9.4 10.1 13.4 137.3 75.0 64.5 1.9 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 10.8 13.9 15.0 159.7 81.6 67.7 2.5 5.7 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 10.0 18.8 19.7 190.3 86.8 76.2 4.2 7.6 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 10.0 11.9 16.7 161.7 80.1 68.7 2.2 7.4 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 9.4 14.7 14.9 173.4 85.0 74.2 1.4 4.4 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 7.8 10.1 16.3 166.9 82.4 70.5 1.9 3.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 9.2 11.9 13.5 136.8 72.0 63.6 0.4 2.1 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 15.6 23.6 23.5 203.0 87.8 79.0 3.7 6.7 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 8.5 12.1 14.1 155.1 80.5 67.2 2.7 4.2 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------