***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 3.8 2.7 3.0 -0.5 41.9 42.7 2.1 3.5 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 3.3 2.6 3.2 -0.1 43.7 46.6 1.7 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 4.6 3.7 3.5 -0.2 43.8 45.6 2.7 4.3 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.3 -0.9 0.7 -0.7 39.4 40.5 -1.1 -0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 4.5 3.3 1.4 -0.8 38.3 40.2 3.3 3.9 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.6 2.5 0.4 -1.4 30.3 32.8 2.9 3.7 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 3.0 2.3 2.9 -0.2 42.0 45.2 1.4 2.6 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -2.1 -1.7 1.1 -1.1 31.5 35.4 -1.7 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.1 2.6 -0.5 40.3 43.4 3.9 4.6 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.5 1.9 -0.8 35.4 39.1 3.5 3.9 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.4 3.5 1.4 -1.0 36.1 38.2 3.5 3.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.1 3.7 1.2 -1.1 34.1 35.7 3.6 4.7 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 4.7 3.2 0.8 -1.4 30.4 33.1 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 5.1 4.6 3.4 -0.2 46.1 46.9 3.1 4.7 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 4.0 2.9 1.2 -0.5 40.6 42.6 2.5 3.6 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.1 3.7 0.9 -1.2 33.1 36.1 3.7 4.4 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 2.9 2.5 3.2 0.2 48.9 50.2 1.7 2.7 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.0 1.8 -0.9 32.0 37.8 2.0 2.8 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 3.8 2.8 3.5 0.0 44.7 48.0 2.0 3.6 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -1.3 24.9 31.1 0.3 1.6 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 4.8 3.9 3.0 -0.4 42.3 44.2 3.5 4.3 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 3.8 3.7 3.7 0.4 52.0 53.5 2.3 3.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 3.5 3.1 3.8 0.1 46.9 49.4 2.0 3.3 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 5.4 4.0 3.1 -0.5 40.3 43.6 3.5 4.7 5.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 3.6 2.8 1.7 -0.6 41.3 41.6 2.4 3.3 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.3 2.8 0.5 -1.4 30.9 31.9 3.0 4.4 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 4.3 3.1 2.3 -0.6 41.2 41.4 2.6 3.9 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 4.7 3.7 1.0 -0.7 39.5 40.9 3.0 4.2 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.5 0.8 1.0 -1.1 29.4 34.7 1.0 1.5 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 3.2 2.6 3.1 -0.2 42.3 44.9 1.6 3.0 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------