***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.3 5.2 1.0 58.9 58.1 0.5 2.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.7 5.4 5.1 1.1 60.5 59.3 0.8 2.7 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.3 5.5 1.0 60.2 58.6 1.6 3.7 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -0.6 -1.1 2.8 0.3 53.7 53.4 -3.1 -1.2 -0.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.4 3.5 0.4 55.9 53.8 2.4 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.4 2.3 -0.2 46.5 48.8 2.2 3.5 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 2.8 5.1 5.0 1.1 59.2 58.9 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -1.9 2.9 0.2 52.4 52.0 -3.0 -2.2 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.4 4.6 0.7 60.1 56.4 2.7 4.6 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.9 3.7 0.4 55.2 53.7 1.8 4.1 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.8 3.3 0.2 52.5 52.1 2.5 4.6 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.2 3.2 0.1 51.5 51.4 2.6 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.5 2.6 -0.2 46.8 48.7 2.4 3.7 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.2 5.0 0.9 57.9 56.9 2.4 4.5 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.8 3.7 3.1 0.4 54.5 55.1 2.6 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.5 2.8 -0.1 48.7 49.7 2.9 4.7 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.0 5.0 5.0 1.2 60.9 60.0 0.8 2.0 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.4 3.5 0.4 54.4 53.5 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.8 5.1 5.4 1.2 60.5 59.2 0.5 2.6 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.8 1.1 1.6 0.1 49.3 50.6 0.4 1.1 1.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.0 6.0 5.1 0.9 60.8 57.7 2.6 4.2 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.4 5.1 5.4 1.3 61.2 60.7 1.4 3.3 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.8 5.5 1.1 59.8 58.8 1.2 3.5 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.3 6.4 4.8 0.7 57.5 56.1 2.3 4.5 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.8 3.6 3.6 0.6 58.3 56.1 1.5 3.1 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.0 4.6 2.6 0.0 51.0 50.1 3.2 4.6 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.5 4.4 0.7 57.7 56.9 0.9 3.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.6 3.0 0.3 52.6 53.3 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 1.6 1.0 2.7 0.2 51.2 51.8 -0.8 0.8 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.6 5.2 1.1 59.6 58.9 0.3 2.9 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------