***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.9 3.2 3.7 0.2 53.9 53.2 0.6 2.9 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 2.8 2.2 3.8 0.5 56.3 55.6 0.5 1.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.4 4.0 0.3 54.3 53.8 0.7 3.6 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -0.2 -1.3 1.2 -0.3 48.0 48.7 -2.8 -1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.7 1.9 -0.3 47.2 48.8 1.8 3.9 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.1 2.6 0.9 -0.6 41.4 45.4 1.8 3.4 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.3 3.6 0.5 56.5 55.1 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 0.0 -1.7 1.5 -0.5 40.7 45.9 -2.3 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.2 3.0 -0.1 49.7 50.5 2.0 5.2 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 4.8 3.5 2.2 -0.3 44.2 47.6 1.4 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.9 3.8 1.8 -0.4 43.7 47.0 2.0 4.3 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.9 3.7 1.7 -0.5 41.8 46.1 1.9 4.1 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.5 3.4 1.2 -0.7 40.1 44.8 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 4.5 3.6 3.7 0.2 50.9 52.1 1.5 3.6 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.3 2.2 1.5 -0.1 48.0 49.7 0.2 2.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.6 1.3 -0.6 42.9 45.7 2.6 4.9 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 2.3 1.8 3.7 0.6 58.2 56.7 0.5 1.5 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 3.0 2.3 2.1 -0.4 44.2 47.1 1.6 2.5 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.1 4.1 0.5 55.9 55.7 0.1 2.3 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 2.9 1.0 0.4 -0.5 40.8 45.0 -0.1 2.3 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.6 3.5 0.1 52.2 52.1 1.3 4.4 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.0 4.1 0.7 58.1 57.9 0.8 2.4 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 2.7 3.4 4.3 0.5 56.1 55.4 0.6 2.0 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 5.0 4.1 3.4 0.0 48.8 50.5 1.6 4.3 5.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.4 3.2 2.1 -0.1 50.7 50.9 0.9 2.9 4.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.5 1.1 -0.5 42.2 45.7 2.9 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.4 2.9 0.0 53.1 52.1 0.9 4.0 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.1 2.8 1.4 -0.3 47.0 48.5 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 3.2 1.5 1.4 -0.5 42.2 45.6 0.2 2.7 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 2.9 2.5 3.9 0.4 55.8 54.8 0.4 2.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------