***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.5 2.3 3.4 0.2 43.3 48.6 2.0 2.6 4.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.5 2.0 3.6 0.7 45.2 54.0 1.3 2.5 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 4.8 3.5 3.9 0.5 46.6 51.4 2.3 3.5 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.8 -1.1 1.5 0.2 44.0 48.4 -2.3 0.1 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.0 2.0 0.1 43.0 47.5 2.6 3.1 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.3 2.8 1.1 -0.4 42.1 44.2 2.5 3.7 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.1 1.9 3.3 0.6 43.9 52.1 1.2 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.4 -1.0 1.6 -0.3 43.6 45.3 -2.1 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.6 3.0 0.2 43.4 49.3 3.2 3.9 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.4 2.9 2.4 -0.1 44.8 47.4 2.4 3.4 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.7 2.9 1.8 -0.2 43.3 45.5 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.2 1.7 -0.4 42.2 44.3 3.1 4.4 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 4.2 3.0 1.2 -0.6 40.2 42.1 2.7 3.4 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.0 3.8 3.8 0.5 50.1 52.9 2.5 3.8 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.4 1.8 0.4 45.8 50.2 2.0 4.3 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.6 1.4 -0.3 41.8 43.8 3.4 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.0 3.7 1.1 49.7 57.1 1.2 2.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 2.5 1.7 2.4 -0.2 46.8 47.2 0.4 1.9 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.0 3.9 0.8 50.6 54.9 1.4 2.9 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.2 -0.4 0.6 -0.6 42.2 43.0 -0.9 0.1 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.2 3.0 3.4 0.3 44.3 50.4 2.7 3.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.4 3.7 4.3 1.5 62.0 61.0 1.2 2.8 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.7 2.7 4.3 0.8 54.5 55.5 1.4 2.6 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.0 3.6 0.3 48.9 50.8 2.9 4.0 5.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.7 2.4 2.1 0.2 44.1 49.0 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.6 1.1 -0.6 40.7 42.1 2.4 3.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.9 2.5 2.7 0.1 42.4 48.1 2.0 3.1 4.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.6 1.6 0.3 43.5 48.6 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.1 0.6 1.6 -0.4 43.3 44.8 -0.1 1.3 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.3 3.6 0.5 45.3 51.5 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------