***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -3.3 24.6 25.1 0.8 2.7 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -2.7 28.7 29.7 0.9 1.8 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 0.1 0.9 0.5 -2.8 27.3 28.4 1.6 3.4 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -2.6 -3.1 26.5 27.8 -2.4 -0.6 2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 0.0 0.3 -1.6 -3.3 24.5 25.7 1.2 3.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 -1.5 -1.7 -2.8 -4.2 16.8 17.8 1.1 2.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -2.9 25.8 27.7 0.2 1.6 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 -4.0 -3.8 -1.7 -3.7 18.1 19.9 -1.8 -0.6 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 0.6 1.2 -0.2 -3.0 26.2 27.5 2.3 3.9 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 0.1 0.2 -0.8 -3.3 21.6 23.8 0.9 2.8 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -3.4 23.6 25.0 1.7 3.0 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 -0.2 -0.5 -1.7 -3.8 19.5 20.9 0.8 4.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.9 -4.1 19.0 19.0 1.2 4.2 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 1.0 1.4 1.2 -2.5 28.7 30.3 1.4 3.7 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.7 0.3 -1.5 -3.0 30.3 30.6 0.4 3.0 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 -0.2 -0.3 -2.0 -3.7 23.1 23.6 2.5 4.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.3 0.0 0.4 -2.1 33.3 34.2 0.0 2.0 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 -1.1 -0.8 -0.9 -3.5 19.2 21.1 0.5 1.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 0.2 0.4 0.6 -2.4 29.9 31.4 0.5 2.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 -3.4 -4.3 -2.7 -4.2 14.0 15.2 -2.0 1.8 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 -0.1 1.2 0.0 -3.0 25.2 27.4 1.7 3.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.8 0.7 1.1 -1.8 34.8 36.0 0.5 2.3 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 0.4 0.2 1.3 -2.1 30.6 33.5 0.3 2.4 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 1.2 1.9 0.6 -2.9 24.8 26.7 2.1 3.9 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 -0.3 0.3 -1.2 -3.2 25.6 26.3 1.0 2.6 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 -1.2 -1.7 -2.7 -4.5 10.8 12.9 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 -0.5 0.2 -0.8 -3.4 23.5 24.1 1.8 3.8 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.0 0.6 -2.1 -3.1 28.6 29.1 1.3 2.9 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 -1.6 -3.8 16.9 18.7 -0.9 2.6 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -3.0 26.1 27.3 0.4 1.8 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------