***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 -2.5 -2.6 -1.3 0.8 52.7 57.4 -5.7 -3.2 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -1.7 -1.3 1.1 58.9 60.6 -6.1 -2.9 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 -0.9 -1.0 -1.6 0.8 53.2 57.8 -3.3 -1.3 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 -6.4 -7.8 -4.7 0.4 43.9 50.8 -9.0 -6.8 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -3.6 -4.1 0.5 45.6 52.1 -4.8 -3.1 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 -4.0 -6.1 -6.4 -0.3 41.7 45.4 -6.9 -4.5 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 1.1 58.9 60.5 -5.8 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -8.2 -9.0 -5.4 0.2 46.9 50.0 -9.7 -8.8 -7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 -1.8 -2.2 -3.0 0.6 50.9 54.8 -4.5 -2.3 -0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -2.6 -4.5 0.3 47.8 51.6 -4.9 -2.5 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -3.5 -4.6 0.2 43.1 49.9 -4.9 -3.0 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -3.0 -4.4 -5.0 0.1 43.7 49.8 -6.3 -3.7 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -2.5 -3.5 -5.3 0.0 45.2 48.0 -5.1 -3.0 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 -1.0 -1.3 -2.9 0.9 51.1 55.9 -4.5 -1.3 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -3.1 -4.2 0.4 43.9 51.5 -4.0 -2.6 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -3.4 -5.2 0.1 42.1 48.3 -4.9 -2.7 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -1.6 -1.1 1.3 61.2 61.8 -5.3 -2.8 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -3.7 -4.1 -5.1 0.3 45.7 50.5 -5.8 -4.0 -2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -1.4 -1.5 1.1 58.8 60.6 -5.3 -2.7 -0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -7.7 -8.3 -6.2 0.4 50.9 51.8 -10.7 -8.4 -6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -3.1 -2.1 0.7 51.6 56.6 -4.9 -3.2 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -1.1 -1.1 1.4 61.9 63.0 -5.8 -3.1 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -1.7 -1.8 1.0 57.1 60.3 -4.8 -2.4 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 -2.3 -2.6 -3.4 0.6 47.9 53.3 -5.1 -2.6 -1.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -3.0 -3.6 0.4 47.1 53.0 -5.1 -2.8 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -4.0 -4.9 0.0 46.3 48.4 -5.3 -3.4 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 -2.9 -3.8 -2.4 0.6 49.6 55.1 -5.9 -3.8 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 -4.0 -5.0 -4.5 0.4 43.8 50.7 -6.1 -4.7 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -5.3 -6.6 -5.8 0.2 46.5 49.3 -8.1 -5.7 -4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -1.7 -1.3 1.0 56.3 59.8 -5.4 -2.9 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------