***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -3.2 -2.8 -0.3 32.6 39.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -3.1 -2.5 0.3 39.9 46.0 -3.6 -2.9 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 -2.9 -2.3 -2.8 -0.1 33.4 41.3 -2.3 -1.0 -0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -5.3 -7.0 -5.7 -0.1 37.9 40.0 -7.2 -5.8 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -5.3 -4.1 -5.3 -0.3 33.9 38.7 -4.2 -3.0 -1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 -7.0 -5.8 -8.0 -1.8 28.4 31.5 -5.6 -4.6 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -3.2 -2.6 0.2 40.3 45.4 -3.4 -2.7 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -9.3 -9.1 -7.2 -1.7 28.6 32.7 -9.0 -7.6 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 -5.2 -3.7 -4.5 -0.5 31.4 38.4 -3.7 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 -5.8 -5.5 -6.2 -1.2 30.5 34.9 -4.5 -3.2 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 -5.8 -5.2 -6.3 -1.2 29.9 34.0 -4.8 -3.4 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 -6.8 -6.0 -7.1 -1.9 28.0 31.4 -5.8 -4.8 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 -6.8 -5.3 -7.1 -1.6 31.3 32.2 -5.3 -4.2 -2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -3.7 -3.1 -4.2 -0.4 35.2 40.0 -3.4 -2.0 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 -4.5 -4.4 -5.5 -0.6 33.9 38.1 -4.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 -5.1 -3.5 -6.8 -1.3 31.4 33.7 -3.4 -3.2 -0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -3.4 -2.0 0.8 44.6 51.4 -3.9 -3.0 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 -7.2 -6.8 -6.6 -1.3 33.2 35.1 -6.9 -4.7 -3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -3.2 -2.5 0.3 39.6 45.8 -3.3 -2.5 -1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -11.6 -11.2 -7.4 -0.9 36.2 39.2 -11.2 -9.1 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 -4.3 -3.6 -3.4 -0.2 33.0 39.6 -3.6 -2.7 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -2.8 -3.3 -1.8 1.0 49.5 53.7 -3.9 -3.3 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -3.4 -2.7 0.2 38.1 44.9 -3.6 -2.7 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -4.5 -3.8 -4.7 -0.8 32.7 37.1 -3.8 -2.9 -2.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -4.5 -3.4 -4.9 -0.5 33.7 37.7 -3.4 -2.0 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 -6.2 -5.6 -6.7 -1.8 28.8 31.0 -5.1 -3.7 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -4.8 -3.3 -3.9 -0.5 32.2 37.9 -3.3 -2.6 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -4.1 -5.6 -5.7 -0.3 35.6 38.6 -5.8 -4.8 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -7.5 -7.3 -7.1 -1.4 33.9 35.1 -7.3 -6.3 -4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -3.2 -2.6 0.1 37.0 43.3 -3.4 -2.6 -1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------