***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 -6.1 -6.0 -6.4 -3.6 22.2 22.6 -3.7 -2.0 0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -6.0 -5.6 -5.3 -2.2 31.2 30.5 -5.1 -3.2 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 -4.8 -4.3 -5.6 -2.5 27.4 27.8 -3.3 -1.5 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -9.6 -9.3 -9.2 -3.3 22.9 25.7 -9.0 -7.3 -2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 -7.0 -6.7 -8.1 -3.0 26.4 28.0 -4.7 -3.3 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 -9.1 -9.1 -10.9 -4.0 23.2 23.5 -7.0 -4.0 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 -6.1 -5.6 -5.6 -2.5 29.9 29.2 -4.9 -3.0 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -10.2 -10.4 -9.5 -3.3 26.8 26.6 -9.5 -7.3 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 -6.6 -6.6 -7.7 -3.2 25.4 26.0 -4.9 -2.4 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 -6.5 -6.3 -8.8 -3.1 27.1 27.1 -5.0 -3.1 -1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 -6.4 -5.8 -8.8 -3.3 27.9 27.6 -5.4 -3.2 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 -8.9 -7.7 -9.2 -3.5 26.6 25.3 -6.3 -4.0 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 -8.7 -7.6 -9.9 -4.1 23.6 22.9 -5.7 -3.4 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 -5.5 -5.2 -6.4 -2.4 27.5 27.6 -5.1 -2.1 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -6.1 -4.7 -7.1 -2.3 29.4 32.1 -4.5 -3.3 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 -6.6 -5.7 -9.6 -3.8 24.6 25.0 -4.0 -2.8 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -4.8 -4.6 -1.5 36.4 35.7 -4.9 -3.2 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 -9.3 -9.7 -9.1 -2.8 25.8 27.3 -8.5 -4.7 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -5.5 -4.5 -4.9 -1.8 32.4 32.1 -4.4 -2.9 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 -12.7 -11.9 -10.3 -2.7 28.1 29.2 -11.3 -8.3 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 -7.5 -6.7 -6.2 -2.7 24.3 27.4 -4.9 -2.9 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -2.5 -4.8 -4.1 -1.3 34.6 35.8 -5.1 -3.3 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -3.9 -4.4 -1.2 34.4 35.7 -4.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 -6.2 -5.7 -7.0 -2.5 27.7 27.6 -4.5 -3.1 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 -7.6 -7.1 -8.0 -4.0 19.0 21.1 -4.2 -2.5 -0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 -8.6 -7.9 -9.2 -3.8 19.6 21.6 -6.5 -3.0 -1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 -7.8 -7.8 -7.4 -4.1 19.3 20.6 -4.9 -1.9 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 -7.4 -6.9 -8.4 -2.9 26.4 28.8 -5.3 -3.8 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 -8.5 -8.3 -9.6 -2.5 27.5 29.3 -8.2 -5.1 -2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 -6.3 -5.5 -5.6 -2.6 28.5 27.8 -4.8 -2.8 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------